Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C., has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984. In an article by the New Yor Times, his model for prediction and way of thinking is explained. He formed this testing theory based on a series of analyses of elections from 1860 to 1960. It disregards complex formulas that most major polling companies use, and instead, uses a series of 13 “keys” that he describes as the 13 Keys to the White House. These are true of false statements, that, if six are false, it will typically end in an upheaveal of the incumbent party and allow the opposing party to win.
Lichtman says that the election results didn’t really surprise him, but there were a few demographic sections that weren’t the exact way he predicted. He was surprised that Trump got as much of the Hispanic vote as he did. He is nervous about the upcoming years though. With Republicans controlling Congress and the presidency, they have the unique opportunity to make changes or repeal nearly anything they want to. This leaves a worry that President Obama’s legacy may be ruined. He made a lot of progressive changes, respectively, and with those potentially being repealed, Lichtman is worried that his history may not be truly historic.